Colin Cowherd is one of the longest tenured Sports Radio hosts in the country, having started his show The Herd with Colin Cowherd at ESPN in 2004, moving it to Fox Sports in 2015. In a career that has withstood the test of time, one of his evergreen segments is the “Blazin Five” picks, his NFL betting locks for that week. He doesn’t simply make these picks with his gut: he consults with sports gambling experts to make them as solid as he can.
In the past 2 weeks, he is 0-9 picking NFL games.
If you think this is a small sample size, consider this. The Dan Le Batard Show with Stugotz, a current ESPN Radio show, has a parallel segment called “Celebrity Prognosticator.” In this segment, they bring on a Random Celebrity, throw 5 betting lines at them, and pit the celebrity’s picks against Cowherd’s “Blazin Five.” They have produced a better record than Cowherd with these picks in 2 of the 4 seasons they’ve been doing them.
This is not to pick on Colin Cowherd. He has accomplished a whole hell of a lot in his career, building a radio show that has stood up when many, many others have failed. And as far as his picks go, he was rated by PunditTracker as the Best Pundit of 2012 for his picks. He is as qualified to make these picks as anyone is, and that is precisely my point. When it comes to Football, nobody has any idea what it is they are watching, with next to zero ability to predict what will happen next.
This brings me to Kirk Cousins. Perhaps no player in the NFL today serves as more of a poster boy for our lack of understanding of the game than the starting quarterback for the Minnesota Vikings. Here are his stats this season: 69.1% Completions, 3603 Yards, 26 Touchdowns, and 6 Interceptions; good for a 107.4 rating. That passer rating, for comparison’s sake, is better than every single year of Brett Favre’s career, better than all but 2 in Peyton Manning’s career, and better than all but 3 in the careers of Tom Brady, Aaron Rodgers, and Drew Brees. Based on statistical production, there is no question that Kirk Cousins just came off an incredibly solid season. And what’s more, the Minnesota Vikings made the playoffs.
So what’s the issue? Well, there is a flip side to the Kirk Cousins story. There is a narrative that he doesn’t play well in big games. And to be fair, this argument has some merit. Discounting the week 17 loss to the Bears in which Cousins didn’t play, the Vikings losses this year came to the Packers (twice), Bears (the other time), the Chiefs, and the Seahawks. Three of these teams made the playoffs this year, and the Bears are a division rival whose 2018 Week 17 defeat of the Vikings kept them out of the postseason. These can all be considered “big games.” And Cousins’ performance can be questioned in many of these matchups. In only one of the losses did he complete 60% of his passes, and 4 of his 6 interceptions came in these games. The week 16 loss to Green Bay was particularly brutal. This was the Vikings biggest game of the year, and playing without star running back Dalvin Cook, Cousins was expected to produce a major chunk of the offensive production. His final stat line for the game: 16/31, 122 yards, 1 touchdown, 1 interception. He was also sacked 5 times for 40 lost yards. Beyond a mere statistical analysis, there are times in these games were he just doesn’t look right, like he’s not sure of himself. Part of his struggles are likely caused by simply playing against better defenses, but it does seem at time that the moment gets to him.
For these reasons and more, there was little confidence had by the Vikings fanbase about Kirk Cousins performance prior to the Wild Card bout with the New Orleans Saints. This game was probably the biggest of his career. Not only because of the stakes of the season, but because of the weight of concerns that his perceived inability to win games such as these was wasting an embarrassment of riches on the Vikings offense.
So what ends up happening? Kirk Cousins rises to the occasion. He starts by leading the Vikings offense to 13 first half points. This despite their first possession abruptly ending on a fumble by the typically sure-handed Adam Thielen. Then in the 3rd quarter, leading 13-10, on a 3rd and 9, in the face of pressure from the Saints defense, Cousins threw a 34-yard strike to Thielen. Three plays later, he hit Stefon Diggs at the goal line on another 3rd down, setting up a Touchdown run by Dalvin Cook that put the Vikings up 20-10. The Saints, as they have made a habit against the Vikings, would come back to tie the game, forcing the game into overtime. But when the Vikings got the ball to start the extra period, Cousins delivered again. On an early 3rd down, he hit Diggs on a slant route, having to having to look off a Saints defender before delivering the ball. He then hit Thielen on another deep ball, summoning a pass that Troy Aikman, on the broadcast for Fox, claimed to be “the best throw of his career.” Three plays later, in the face of an all-out blitz, he delivered the dagger, a goal-line fade to Kyle Rudolph. It was his first touchdown pass of the day, and secured a walk-off win. Kirk Cousins threw a series of perfect passes in pressure situations, both in terms of the moment and in terms of the pocket, to lead the Vikings to an unlikely victory.
So now it’s worth asking. Has the narrative changed? I don’t know. I do know that Michael Jordan was called a selfish player who could never win a championship…until he did. Peyton Manning also had a reputation for coming up short, but ended up winning 2 rings before his time was done. Same with Lebron James. And John Elway. I don’t know that Cousins is any of these guys. In fact, most would scoff at merely mentioning Kirk Cousins in the same breath as these legends. This may be as far as he ever gets, but the fact is, the narrative on those guys changed drastically, and forever. This wasn’t even close to Kirk Cousins’ best performance of the year, but the stakes attached to the game made it into the defining performance of his career thus far.
In the week leading up to the game, a friend of mine, who shall remain nameless, texted me the following: “In his career, Cousins is 0-15 and 1-13-1 ATS against teams that finished with at least 12 wins in a seasons (the Saints won 13 games this season). The outright winning percentage is the worst by any quarterback in the Super Bowl era. Meanwhile, New Orleans in 11-3 ATS since week 3, the best mark in the NFL. Chances of a Vikings win on Sunday: 4%.” Another nameless friend replied, “Not even gonna cover the 8pts man,” referencing the +8 betting spread the Vikings were carrying into the game.
They were both wrong.
They weren’t alone either. Across host network Fox, ESPN, and NFL Network, not one analyst picked the Vikings to win the game. And the center of the concerns was with whether Kirk Cousins would be able to play well in a big moment.
This goes both ways though. I thought Cousins would throw for 300 yards against the packers in Week 17. I was also wrong.
The Vikings will get ready to play against the 1-seeded San Francisco 49ers on Saturday, and the question lingers: Which Kirk Cousins will we get? The guy that played the Packers in Week 16, or the guy that played the Saints this weekend. I don’t know, my friends don’t know, Colin Cowherd doesn’t know, and that’s okay.
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